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The economics of hydrogen in a carbon constrained world

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The economics of hydrogen in a carbon constrained world

David Cunningham

Principal Investment Manager

当前的COVID-19危机使人们对能源部门及其如何应对未来需求产生了关注. 氢 has a role to play in a transitioning global energy model and could provide 20% of the world’s CO₂ reduction needed by 2050然而，这种作用在未来经济中的规模将取决于其经济可行性.

以前, 我的同事们一直在分享关于氢的潜力及其对全球能源转型的贡献的见解. 艾伦·莫蒂默 discussed its clean energy credentials, Omar Bedani shaped the challenges of scaling up hydrogen production, and then Adam Frew offered perspective on how it could compliment a more sustainable mix of fuels in the transportation sector.

Now I want to put an economic lens on the hype around hydrogen.

氢 demand

氢 is already a vital part of the global economic environment, 主要用于除硫天然气，更重要的是用于生产化肥. 因此，养活世界上不断增长的人口将成为未来几年持续的氢需求的重要来源.

全球粮食生产目前依赖于蒸汽甲烷重整(SMR)生产氢气，然后与氮结合生产用于肥料的氨. 然而, SMR具有高碳强度，因此氢产量约占当今全球温室气体排放量的3%.

Projected worldwide population growth of two billion people by 2050 将意味着 demand for ammonia could double by 2050 but global carbon reduction targets 将意味着 that production methods will themselves have to be decarbonised.

hydrogen demand

Costs of green hydrogen

The cost of hydrogen solutions is projected to decrease by up to 50% by 2030, 但是，尝试和估计绿色氢的长期价格是一个复杂的过程。绿色氢是通过电解水产生的氢，没有排放，可以由可再生能源的电力提供动力. The market for green hydrogen today is characterised by a low rate of deployment, at less than 140 megawatts. 然而, 小规模项目显示出可行性的证据，可以缓解未来碳价格的变化，这些变化将影响与碳排放相关的总体项目成本.

If we assume electrolyser capacity can be scaled up, 用绿色氢生产氨的成本至少是SMR氨的两倍. 与目前的绿色氢相比，燃烧天然气仍有竞争力. SMR制氢可以扩展到非常大的产能，并且具有非常有竞争力的投资成本, but it is challenged by the disposal or use of the captured CO₂. Clearly with innovation, economies of scale and learning rates the cost difference will compress with time.

If we also look at some fundamentals of the renewables market, prices continue to drop and power generation capacity is up; wind turbine manufacturing, 太阳能(多晶硅)和电池存储(手持设备)受益于已建立的供应链，这些供应链在快速降低可再生能源和电池存储系统的成本方面发挥了重要作用. 不幸的是，电解槽和燃料电池技术并没有从类似的发展中受益. 因此，相比之下，氢成本降低的速度可能会慢一些.

Key addressable markets for green hydrogen

氢气生产的最初重点将是氨的脱碳，以供应给化肥市场. 几乎没有证据表明有替代产品可以大规模地取代氢气作为肥料. 因此, devoid of lower cost alternatives, ammonia for food production should outbid the price for electricity supply, transportation fuel or heating requirements. 作为第一个市场采用者，绿色氢很可能最终会供应氨.

尽管如此, 在技术上难以脱碳的经济领域，清洁氢在能源应用中的作用更为积极. Industrial heat processes represent around a fifth of global greenhouse gas emissions. Removal of these emissions is essential for 2050 net zero targets to be met.

hydrogen demand

在工业供热领域，钢铁和水泥的生产需要最高的温度. 用煤为原料的鼓风炉生产钢铁的成本大约是使用可再生能源氢电厂生产钢铁的成本的一半. If we consider natural gas the difference narrows to around 35% versus green hydrogen.

随着食品, paper and aluminium demand lower temperatures, 这些分部门可以安装电弧炉来代替化石燃料系统. Electricity is passed through giant electrodes in the roof of an oven, creating an arc. They tend to be more efficient and use electricity as their power source, 同时也避开了能源密集型的电解过程，在水的电解中明显的分离水用于制氢.

到目前为止, 很少有证据表明交易或运输液态氢接近商业可行性. 这种市场动态可能会持续几十年，因为氢气生产适合当地生产的地区，并带来成本效益.

Is the power grid an addressable market? 由于可再生能源的成本在全球市场上削弱了传统发电, 不可避免的是，间歇性可再生能源水平的提高将提高平衡电网的成本. In periods of demand where energy is needed by the grid, hydrogen could be used to ensure the correct amount of electricity is needed. 这将取决于它与水电等其他替代能源组合的竞争力, 热存储, electric vehicles, 电池存储和内部连接(电力和天然气网络之间的能量流动).

氢的市场机会将取决于它与可再生氢市场的竞争力. 在碳排放日益受限的全球市场中，最难脱碳且对价格变化不太敏感的行业将成为绿色制氢的关键可寻地市场. 最初, 这很可能有利于无碳氨的生产，以支持不断增长的人口的粮食生产，而不是能源部门.